O.C. sellers have 58% fewer homes on market

Where did Orange County’s homeseller go? Supply is down 58% in a year.

 The latest Orange County home inventory report from Steve Thomas and ReportsOnHousing.com — data as of October 11 includes these thoughts …

The active listing inventory dropped another 5% within the past two weeks, shedding an additional 217 homes. There are only 4,199 homes on the active market. Even at a record low, the active inventory has still declined by 10% in the past month. The drought continues and does not look like it will stop dropping anytime soon. Last year at this time there were 10,044 homes on the market, well over double the current inventory. The active inventory stood at 8,114 homes at the beginning of the year, 3,915 more than today. Many have asked if the election has anything to do with the current market, but the unprecedented drop started back in June of last year. The general public was not focused on the election back then, helping illustrate that we are witnessing what appears to be a true recovery.

Thomas’ signature housing measurement is his “market time” benchmark. It tracks how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic, as of October 11 — we see …

  • Market time of 1.29 months for Orange County buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 1.31 months two weeks ago vs. 3.46 months a year ago vs. 4.12 months two years ago.
  • Of the 8 Orange County pricing slices Thomas tracks, 5 had faster market time vs. 2 weeks ago; and 8 improved over a year ago.
  • Orange County homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 0.99 months vs. 4.76 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
  • So, basically, it is 4.8 times harder to sell a million-dollar-plus residence!
  • And just so you know, the million-dollar market represents 31% of all homes listed and 8% of all homes that entered into escrow in the past 30 days.

Here’s the recent data for listings; deals pending; market time in months; latest vs. 2 weeks earlier, a year ago and 2 years ago. Color coding for market time is red (slowed by 5%-plus in year); green (sped up by 5%-plus in year); and yellow (in between!) Note: k=thousand; m=million …

Slice Listings Deals Market Time (months) 2 week ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago
$0-$250k 470 557 0.84 0.94 2.79 2.91
$250k-$500k 1,024 1,417 0.72 0.75 2.43 3.28
$500k-$750k 875 741 1.18 1.14 4.18 4.32
$750k-$1m 571 264 2.16 2.22 5.70 6.18
$1m-$1.5m 419 139 3.01 3.01 7.31 6.51
$1.5m-$2m 275 59 4.66 3.88 9.60 13.45
$2m-4m 366 54 6.78 7.04 16.83 13.90
$4m+ 229 19 12.05 12.21 40.86 42.00
All O.C. 4,199 3,255 1.29 1.31 3.46 4.12

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